Don’t Count On Asia To Lead Worldwide Recovery
24 June 2009
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Those who think Asia is going to lead the recovery need to think again. Please consider Japan Export Slump Deepens, Casting Doubt on Recovery.
Those looking for significant decoupling are still many years, perhaps even a decade or more early.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Japan’s export slump deepened in May, casting doubt on the nation’s growth prospects as the economy struggles to emerge from its worst postwar recession.Far too many have equated a rise in the price of commodities for sustainable growth in China independent of demand in the US and Europe. The idea is as silly now as it was in 2008 when various books were promoting decoupling theories. It's important to remember that Speculation In China Does Not Mean Inflation In The US or sustainable growth anywhere.
Shipments abroad dropped 40.9 percent from a year earlier, more than April’s 39.1 percent decline, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of economists surveyed was for a 39.3 percent decrease. From a month earlier, exports fell 0.3 percent, the first deterioration since February.
Declines in shipments to Asia accelerated for the first time since January, damping hopes that demand from the region will spur a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. A worldwide stock market rally stalled this month on concern that the global recession will deepen.
“Final demand just isn’t picking up and it’s still hard to expect a very strong economic recovery,” said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. Kato said the economy will “barely expand” in 2010 once the effect of Japan’s own economic stimulus measures fades.
Steel, autos and semiconductors led the slump. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. Exports to Asia slid 35.5 percent from 33.4 percent a month earlier.
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus measures haven’t been enough to offset sales declines in the U.S. and Europe.
Those looking for significant decoupling are still many years, perhaps even a decade or more early.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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